Cosmology

宇宙起源

Through a glass, darkly

望远镜显神通，暗物质现踪影

Aug 24th 2006

From The Economist print edition

The first proof that dark matter really does exist

首次发现暗物质确实存在的证据

THAT the universe is filled with matter people cannot see—matter that simply passes through pretty much everything undetected—is hard to accept. But it would appear to be true. The alternative—that somehow gravity works differently at extremely large distances—has just been ruled out by astronomers who are watching one of the most violent collisions in the history of creation.

对对宇宙中到处都有人们看不见的物质这种观点——这种物质可以轻松地穿过差不多所有物体而不被人察觉——很难让人接受。但这种观点很快将被看作是正确的。就在最近，同这种观点针锋相对的另一种观点——认为当两物体之间相距很远的时候，引力的作用方式会改变——刚刚被天文学家们否定。他们是通过观察星系团形成之初一次最激烈的星系碰撞过程后作出这一结论的。 

Most galaxies are found in gravitationally bound groups, called clusters. Sometimes these clusters collide and merge with one another. The bullet cluster—otherwise known as 1E0657-556—is one such example. Some 100m years ago, it was created when a smaller cluster smashed into a larger one at about 5,000 kilometres per second. The crash was the highest-energy cosmic event known to have occurred since the Big Bang. The winds generated by the collision created a bullet-shaped cloud of hot gas that gives the cluster its name.

大多数星系发现于各个靠引力维系的集团内，也成为星系团。有时这些星系团彼此撞击并发生合并。子弹装星系团——又被称作星系团“1E0657-56”——就是由两个大星系团碰撞形成的。该星系团是在大约1亿年前，一个较小的星系团以每秒5000公里的速度撞击一个较大的星系团后形成的。这次撞击产生的能量是自“宇宙大爆炸”以来最大的一次。撞击产生的风形成了子弹状的热气团，该星系团故此得名。 

In clusters, most of the “normal” matter—the atoms that make up the stars, the planets and any being living on them—is in the form of hot gas and stars. The mass of the gas between the galaxies is far greater than the mass of the stars within them. Scientists have known since the 1930s that there was a problem: that the mass of the observed matter was far too small for gravity to keep the stars within the galaxies and the galaxies within clusters. Either there was some huge but unseen mass that was doing the job, or gravitational theory was wrong and gravity worked differently on cosmic scales.

在各星系团内部，大多数“正常”物质——原子，构成了恒星、行星及其所承载的一切事物——是以炽热的气体和恒星的形式存在的。不同星系之间气体的质量远远大于各星系内恒星的质量。自上世纪30年代起，科学家们就发现了这样一个问题：能够观察到的物质所具有的质量，根本不足以产生足够的引力把恒星束缚在星系内部，也无法将星系束缚在星系团中。对此有两种解释：要么这种巨大的引力由一种看不见的物质产生的；要么引力理论错了，即在宇宙尺度下，引力的作用方式会发生变化。 

To test which was correct, astronomers led by Douglas Clowe of the University of Arizona turned their telescopes on the cloud in the bullet cluster. In the collision that formed it, the stars mostly missed each other and went speeding ahead, relatively unimpeded. The clouds of gas, however, were held back because they presented a much broader face to each other. The gas was slowed by a drag force similar to air resistance.

由美国亚里桑那大学的道格拉斯·克洛韦领导的一批天文学家将望远镜的观测目标对准了子弹状星云团中的气团，以检验上述两个理论的正误。在形成该星云团的碰撞过程中，大多数恒星彼此分离并且快速向前运动，几乎未受任何阻力。然而，那些气团的运动却受到抑制，因为它们彼此间的接触面在增大。这些气团在一种类似空气阻力的外力拖拽作用下放慢了速率。 

If dark matter exists, it should have travelled with the stars, because the particles that constitute dark matter—whatever they may be—do not interact with each other or anything else, except through gravity. If, however, dark matter does not exist and it is gravitational theory that needs modifying, then the mass of the bullet cluster should be distributed as it is in the rest of the universe—that is, the mass should be mostly in the gas clouds rather than in the stars.

如果暗物质确实存在，那它应该伴随恒星们一起运动，因为构成暗物质的微粒——无论是何种微粒——除了引力之外，不会同包括自身在内的其他一切物质发生作用。但是，如果暗物质不存在并且需要对引力理论进行修正，那么子弹状星系团的质量就应该呈现出同宇宙内其他区域一致的分布格局——即绝大多数质量应该包含在气团内而不是恒星里。 

Dr Clowe and his colleagues used a technique called gravitational lensing to detect the mass distribution of the bullet cluster. Gravitational lensing occurs because gravity, as Einstein showed, bends light. That means a massive object such as a galaxy can act like a lens, bending light from things behind it to a focal point in front of it, and forming a natural telescope.

克洛韦博士及其同事们使用一种称为引力透镜（注1）的技术来探测子弹状星系团的质量分布情况。引力透镜效应（注2）的产生是因为引力会改变光路，正如爱因斯坦提出的那样。它的意思是一个质量巨大的物体如一个星系，可以像棱镜一样，使物体后方的光线发生弯曲并折射到物体前方的某个焦点上，并形成一个天然的望远镜。 

The images they obtained, which will be published in a forthcoming issue of Astrophysical Journal Letters, showed that the mass of the bullet cluster was mostly with and ahead of the stars, whereas the gas accounted for little of it. Merely changing the way in which gravity acts on normal matter cannot explain this distribution. Thus, dark matter must exist, and it was wrenched apart from normal matter by the force of the collision of the clusters. The task for the next 70 years is for physicists, astronomers and cosmologists to discover exactly what it is.

克洛韦博士他们观测到的照片——即将刊登在下一期《天体物理学通讯》上——表明子弹状星系团的大部分质量都集中在恒星的周围或前方，而气团仅仅占总质量的一小部分。只靠修正一下重力对正常物体作用的方式不可能解释这种情况。这样一来，暗物质就必须存在，并且受星系团撞击产生的作用力影响而从正常的物质中分离出来。对物理学家、天文学家和宇宙起源学家们来说，未来70年的任务就是揭开暗物质的庐山真面目。

注1：引力透镜技术是贝尔实验室的科学家们创造的一种方法，用来给暗物质结构绘图。

注2：引力透镜效应是爱因斯坦广义相对论所预言的一种现象，由于时空在大质量天体附近会发生畸变，使光线在大质量天体附近发生弯曲（光线沿弯曲空间的短程线传播）。如果在观测者到光源的视线上有一个大质量的前景天体则在光源的两测会形成两个像,就好像有一面透镜放在观测者和天体之间一样,这种现象称之为引力透镜效应。对引力透镜效应的观测证明阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的广义相对论确实是引力的正确描述。

Translated by edenbahamut

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Airport screening technology

机场安检技术

Full exposure

违禁物品，一览无遗

Aug 17th 2006

From The Economist print edition

New methods to prevent terrorism on aeroplanes are being developed

防范恐怖分子登机的新技术渐露端倪

Technology Quarterly

技术季刊

Making waves

化波浪为电力

Jun 8th 2006

From The Economist print edition

Energy: Converting the motion of the sea into electricity requires a trade-off between efficiency and resilience—or does it?

能源：海洋的动能转变为电能时效率和弹性不可兼得——非如此不可吗？

THE prospects for wave power have risen and fallen, appropriately enough, for years. But now the technology finally seems to be making headway. Not only is the world's first commercial wave farm due to be switched on and connected to the electricity grid in Portugal this summer—but an even newer type of wave-power generator could drastically reduce the cost of extracting energy from the sea.

多少年来，海浪能的利用前景始终沉浮不定。但如今技术似乎正在这方面不断取得进展。这不仅因为今年夏天在葡萄牙世界上第一座海浪发电厂将要开始投入运作并接入电网，而且一种更新型号的海浪能发动机可以极大地降低从海洋获取能源的成本。

Wave power first attracted interest in the 1970s, when Stephen Salter of the University of Edinburgh devised a device that converted the motion of waves into electricity. The potential is vast: a report published earlier this year by the Carbon Trust, an organisation set up by the British government to help meet its targets for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, concluded that 20% of Britain's electricity could be provided by wave and tidal power. This is four times more than previous estimates, and means that marine energy alone could enable Britain to reach its emissions-reduction targets. In America, meanwhile, the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory has estimated that the use of wave power on the east coast could provide 10-25 times more electricity than the total wind potential of the Great Plains.

对海浪能的兴趣始于上世纪七十年代，当时英国爱丁堡大学的斯蒂芬·沙特教授（注一）设计了一个能够将海浪的动能转变为电能的装置。海浪能的潜力巨大：今年年初碳信托基金会（Carbon Trust）提交的一份报告上说海浪能和潮汐能可以提供英国20％的电能。碳信托基金会是英国政府设立的一个机构，其任务是帮助政府解决减少温室气体排放的问题。这份报告中给出的数字比之前估计的数字高出四倍多，这表面仅仅依靠海洋提供的能量就可以帮助英国达到温室气体排放减少的目标。与此同时，据隶属于美国国家能源部的国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）估测，利用海浪能给东海岸地区提供的电能比整个大平原地区全部风力发电的潜能高出10至25倍以上。

Given this potential, why is it that so far, not a single commercial wave-power generator is in operation? “The biggest problem with wave-power generators is that they are relatively expensive,” says Keith Melton of the New and Renewable Energy Centre in Blyth, England. Most produce electricity at a cost of between 10-20 pence (18-36 cents) per kilowatt hour (kWh), whereas electricity produced from natural gas costs around 4p/kWh. One reason for the expense of wave power is the need to make the equipment impervious to storm damage and corrosion. Of the countless wave-power concepts invented over the years, most have been heavily over-engineered to reduce the chances of breakdown at sea. This reduces their efficiency, increasing the cost per kWh and preventing wave power from making progress.

既然潜力如此巨大，那么为何迄今为止无任何一台商用海浪能发电机投入使用。“最大的问题在于海浪发电机的价格现对比较昂贵，”位于英格兰布莱思的新能源和可再生能源中心的基思•梅尔顿这样说道。利用海浪发电的成本大多介于10至20便士（折合18至36美分）每千瓦时（KWh），而天然气发电的成本大约是4便士每千瓦时（4p/KWh）。海浪发电的成本如此昂贵的一个原因是，全部设备必须采取防风暴、防腐蚀的设计。几十年来，有关利用波浪能的设想比比皆是、数不胜数，而大多数设计方案都添加了过多的改进，其目的就是为了减少机器在海里发生故障的可能。这些改进降低了机器工作的效率、增加了发电的成本，还使得海浪发电技术停滞不前。

But now things seem to be changing. Near Póvoa de Varzim, off the northern coast of Portugal, three 150-metre-long articulated snake-like pontoons, called Pelamis Wave Energy Converters, are in the final stages of being hooked up to the country's national grid, says Andrew Scott of Ocean Power Delivery, the firm behind them. Each one has three power-converter modules distributed along its length, which transform the flexing motion at the snake's joints into electricity as the snakes are buffeted by the waves. The three snakes are the first stage of a planned 24-megawatt wave-power farm, which will be capable of providing 15,000 households with power. The Pelamis's design avoids the trade-off between resilience and efficiency by switching to a higher-efficiency mode in calm seas.

但是，事情现在似乎发生了转机。据英国海洋动力传递公司的安德鲁•斯科特称，在靠近葡萄牙北海岸的Póvoa de Varzim附近，有三根长150米蛇形浮筒，被称为“海蛇号”的海浪能转换器正翘首以待，准备接入国家电网。英国海洋动力传递公司是“海蛇号”的制造商。每根浮筒都有三个动力转换模块并按长度分布，这些模块将浮筒衔接处不断牵动摇摆产生的动能转变为电能，这就像蛇受到海浪拍打而扭动一样。这三条“蛇”是建立一座拥有24兆瓦特发电量的海浪能发电厂的第一步，届时该发电厂能够为15000户家庭供电。“海蛇号”的设计通过采用在平静海面更高效的模式，从而避开了弹性和效率不可兼顾的矛盾。

But the new device, called the Snapper, increases efficiency still further. Electrical generators tend to work most efficiently when a small force is applied at high speed—which is just the opposite of what wave power provides, says Ed Spooner, a consultant engineer based near Durham, in England, who invented the Snapper. His invention works much like a typical linear generator, in which a magnet is moved up and down inside coils of wire, inducing electrical currents in the process. But there is a crucial difference: alongside the coils are a second set of magnets of alternating polarity. These prevent the central magnet from moving up and down smoothly. Instead, magnetic forces repeatedly halt its motion, so that it moves up and down in a jerky fashion. The resulting series of short, rapid movements is more suitable for generating electricity than a slow, smooth movement. Early tests suggest that it could be as much as ten times more efficient than existing wave generators. Having spent years floundering in the water, could wave power finally be ready to make a splash?

不过一台被称作“Snapper”新装置能够进一步提高其运作效率。埃得•斯波纳认为，当对一台高速运转的发电机施加一个很小的作用力时，往往会把发电机的效率最大地发挥出来——而海浪提供的外力则恰恰相反。他是“Snapper”的发明人，现居住在英格兰的达勒姆附近，是一名顾问工程师。他发明的装置运转起来就像一台典型的直线发动机。在装置内，磁铁在线圈内上下移动从而产生电流。但是有一个重大的区别：沿线圈旁放置了另一块同线圈内那块磁极相反的磁铁。这样可以避免线圈中央的磁铁上下移动的幅度过小。否则，磁力会不断阻止磁铁的运动，这样磁铁的运动便会时断时续。其结果会导致磁铁以一系列短促、快速的方式运动，这种运动比起缓慢、小幅的运动更有利于发电。早期的研究表明，这种装置的效率有可能达到现存海浪能发电机工作效率的十倍以上。人们已经在海水中苦苦寻觅了这么多年，海浪是否能够在最后溅起一丝灵光呢？

注一：Stephen Salter，为英国爱丁堡大学工程科学院教授，国际上知名的海洋能专家和发明家，英国皇家科学院的“Fellow”。早在1974年，他就在著名的国际刊物Nature上发表了后来被称为Salter点头鸭波能装置的著名论文。目前Salter教授在不断继续海洋能方面的深入研究工作。

Translated by edenbahamut

Welcome to www.ecocn.org for more papers from The Economist

Translated by edenbahamut

Welcome to www.ecocn.org for more papers from The Economist

Translated by edenbahamut

Welcome to www.ecocn.org for more papers from The Economist

Science & Technology 科技报道

Weather forecasting 气象预报

Riders on a storm 驾驭风暴

Aug 10th 2006
From The Economist print edition

How to detect thunderstorms before they happen 如何在雷暴肆虐前找到他们

THUNDERSTORMS are notoriously unpredictable, as many a drenched picnicker can attest. Although meteorologists know what conditions favour their formation, they are hard-pressed to say exactly where a storm will occur until it is almost too late.

对雷暴的预测是出了名的难，许多外出野餐时遭暴雨莫名袭击而饱受雨水之苦的人们可以作证。尽管气象学者们清楚地知道有利于雷暴形成的条件，但是要及时而又精确地预测雷暴发生的地点使他们感到压力重重。

One reason is that the radars used to track storms can detect water in the atmosphere only once it has condensed into clouds or raindrops, and thus reflects the beam. By the time that happens, a storm is imminent. It would be better if there were some way to see atmospheric water（大气中的水分） while it is still vapour, before raindrops form.

原因之一在于利用追踪风暴的气象雷探测大气中的水分是有条件的：只有当大气中的水分凝结形成云或雨点时，雷达发出的电波才会被反射，这样雷达才能探测到。但是，往往在气象雷达作出反应时，暴风雨已经迫在眉睫了。如果有什么方法能够赶在其凝聚成雨点之前在大气中探测到这些水汽，那么预测将更为及时。

Rita Roberts, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, in Colorado, and Frederic Fabry, of McGill University in Canada, think they have found out how to do this. Their method exploits the fact that water vapour changes the speed at which radar waves travel though air. That enables use to be made of what was previously just irritating noise—the part of a radar beam that is reflected not from raindrops, but from fixed objects such as buildings.

美国国家大气研究中心（位于科罗拉多州）的丽塔•罗伯茨和加拿大麦吉尔大学的弗雷德里克•法布里认为，他们已经找到了解决这一问题的方法。他们的方法揭示出了这样一个事实：水蒸气会改变雷达波穿越空气时的速度。这样人们就可以利用这一发现来识别过去常探测到的令人头痛的杂音。这些雷达波不是雨点反射回来的，而是一些诸如建筑物的固体反射回来的。

Since the distance from any given radar to each of these reflective surfaces (which may be as much as 50km, or 30 miles, away) is known precisely, the time it takes a beam to get there and back is a measure of how much water vapour it contains. With only one radar, this measure is not very informative, but the researchers' method uses four, pointing in different directions through the same air-mass.

因为可以精确获取某一雷达到这些反射物体中的任一表面的距离（可能有50公里，即30英里远），人们便可以通过雷达波往返两地所需的时间测得反射物的水蒸气含量。仅使用一个雷达，所得的信息并不准确；而研究人员们同时使用四个雷达，分别从不同的方向对同一个气团进行测量。

Combining the signals from all four radars using some newly designed software means that the water content of the atmosphere can be sampled at points 4km apart. The existing system in America, which relies on weather balloons, samples points about 150km apart. The result is that incipient storms can be detected several hours before they burst, and picnickers need never be drenched again.

通过某种新开发出来的软件将四个雷达的信号结合起来，可以测得相隔4公里的两个样点的大气含水量。而美国现有的探测系统都是依赖于气象探测气球，两样点之间的距离达150公里。通过这一新方法，人们就可以在风暴形成数小时前探测到其源头。这样一来，那些外出野餐的人们再也不用体验落汤鸡的滋味了。

Beijing no longer commands instant obedience from China's local authorities

北京的话筒已失去令各地方政府惟命是从的效力

THE Chinese Communist Party is a highly centralised beast, with a power structure little changed from the days of Mao Zedong. Over the next year or so it will be engaged in what official reports describe as one of the biggest shuffles of leaders at every level, with hundreds of thousands due to change their jobs. Nominally, appointments are made by local party committees. In practice top appointments in the provinces have always been made by leaders in Beijing. But that does not mean that Beijing is in complete control.

中国共产党是高度中央集权的团体，自第一代领导人毛泽东以来，这种集权体制鲜有变化。2007年一整年，将是各级领导换届的时刻，这是党内最重大的一次换届选举，职务变动将波及数十万人。从表面上看，人事任命由地方党委决定。实际上，各地方省级最高官员是由北京方面的领导人直接指派的。但是，这并不意味着一切尽在北京的掌控之中。

A good career in the party still depends on following, or at least appearing to follow, the centre's orders. But local leaders calculate that as long as their areas achieve rapid economic growth with minimal unrest, then they have considerable leeway to do as they will. The party no longer really frets about the ideological purity of its leaders. And since the days of Mao each new generation of leaders in Beijing has been increasingly less able to command instant obedience across the country.

作为党员，只有拥护中央的决定才会有好的仕途，最起码也要在表面上的拥护党的领导。但是，地方的领导人却打着自己的算盘：只要自己的管辖区经济持续快速增长，并尽可能保持社会的稳定，那么他们便可以放开手脚为所欲为地干了。党组织也一反常态，不再为领导干部的思想统一而心神不宁了。自毛泽东以后，历代中央领导集体对全国各地的指挥正逐渐丧失效用。

To be sure, China is not heading towards a break-up, anarchy or the warlord ism of the pre-communist era. The armed forces and the police remain under the party centre's grip. At the provincial leadership level, too, the authority of the centre is secure. Many residents of regions with large numbers of ethnic minorities, especially Tibet and Xinjiang, resent being controlled by Beijing, but their leaders are party loyalists. Provincial leaders, in fact, display far more ideological harmony than was the case in the 1980s or early 1990s. At that time, some were conspicuously conservative or reformist. Ye Xuanping, a popular native leader of Guangdong Province next to Hong Kong, was often reported to be building the region into a personal power base. Worried central leaders moved him to a sinecure in Beijing in 1991.

可以肯定的是，中国不会走向分崩离析，不会走向无政府主义，也不会走向共产党执政前那军阀混战的动荡岁月。军队和政权仍旧牢牢地掌握在中国共产党的手中。中央对省级政府的领导权依然毫无动摇。在那些聚居有大量少数民族的区域，尤其是西藏和新疆，许多居民对于中共颇有微辞。但是当地的领导人是中国共产党的忠实拥护者。事实上，同上世纪80年代和90年初相比，各地方上的领导在思想上要统一得多。而在那时，有些领导人要么极度僵化的保守派，要么是极力主张改革的急先锋。广东人叶选平（注1），广东省（毗邻香港）一位著名的领导人曾一度宣称要将广东建成个人权力基地。1991年，忧心忡忡的中央政府将他调离广州，回北京就任一个有名无实的闲差。

The problem today is more a profusion of township, county and prefectural leaderships whose efforts to propel growth in their regions produce impressive statistics, but often at a heavy social, environmental or macroeconomic cost. In the last two years the government has been worrying that the economy might overheat and has been trying to curb investment in industries whose capacity has been growing too quickly. But local officials have often simply ignored these measures. As Zhang Baoqing, a former deputy minister of education, put it to an official newspaper last year, China's biggest problem is that orders issued in Zhongnanhai, the party headquarters in Beijing, sometimes never leave the compound.

如今，大量镇、县以及省级领导层的问题层出不穷，这些领导集体都不遗余力地拉动本地区的经济增长，将统计数字捧到了天上；但是这一切的背后是社会、环境和宏观经济支出所付出的巨大代价。政府从两年前开始担心经济发展可能过热，并竭力抑制增长过快工业投资。但是，地方官员往往只是将这些措施置若罔闻。正如去年，前任教育部副部长张宝庆在一份官方报纸（中国青年报）上说道：中国最大的问题是中南海（中国共产党的总部）制定东西有时都出不了中南海。

In March last year, amid growing public complaints about fast-rising house prices, the government issued directives aimed at cooling the market. Shanghai, the main target of these measures, dutifully tightened controls. But house prices in other big cities have climbed rapidly— Beijing's by more than 17% in the first two months of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Beijing's city government is not entirely to blame. Demand is growing as the city prepares to host the Olympic Games in 2008. Interest rates are low. China is reluctant to raise them sharply for fear of putting further pressure on the yuan to appreciate. That could hurt exports and push up unemployment.

去年三月，在公众对于快速攀升的房价的抱怨声中，政府发布多项政令，旨在给房地产市场降温。首当其冲的目标——上海，乖乖地加紧对房地产的管制。但是，其他大城市的房价仍迅速上扬——北京的房价在今年头两个月，同去年同期相比，上涨了17％以上。但北京市政府没有为此负全责。因为要筹备2008年奥运会，需求不停地增长。出于对人民币升值压力的担心，中国政府不愿意大幅增息，所以利率保持在低水平。而人民币升值将对出口产生幅面影响并加剧失业。

But local governments control land supply and have a vested interest in keeping prices high. In 1994 the central government changed the way it shared tax revenues with the provinces, leaving the centre with a much bigger portion. But sub-provincial governments still shoulder the main burden of the provision of health care and schooling (which they do only patchily). Land-related transactions have become a crucial source of local governments' revenue. They are further helped by their ability to persuade state-owned banks—ill-equipped to make sound lending decisions—to grant loans.

但是，当地政府控制着土地供应，并通过维持高物价水平从中牟利。1994年，中央政府调整了中央地方共享税税收的分配比例，中央分到了极大的一块。但是，市级政府仍然承担着医疗和教育（仅仅是后勤工作）的负担。地产类交易已成为地方政府所仰仗的重要财源。凭借他们高超的游说功底，使那些体制不健全的国有银行头脑发热而把贷款发放给了他们，这无疑是如虎添翼。

In the late 1990s, when China began to privatise urban housing, the central government ordered that the bulk of new housing projects should be low-cost and restricted to middle- and lower-income families. Developers of such housing were to be given big tax benefits. But local governments saw little to be gained. In Beijing only one-tenth of new housing space belongs to this category. Regulations announced this week require local governments to boost the supply of cheap housing. There will not be an enthusiastic response.

上世纪90年代末，正当中国拉开了城市住房私有化序幕的时候，中央政府规定：新一批的房产开发项目中的大部分必须是面向中低收入家庭的廉价房。政府将提供这些房产项目的开发商大量的税收优惠政策。但是，各地方政府觉得这些项目几乎无利可图。在北京新近开发的楼盘中，仅有十分之一属于这类廉价房。本周发布的“国六条”要求地方政府加大廉价住房的建设力度。但各地方政府并不会对此作出积极的响应。

Local leaders rarely incur heavy political penalties for failing to carry out the central government's economic directives. Officials in Beijing frequently order clampdowns on the makers of pirated goods. Offending factories are sometimes closed. But local officials who condone such operations as a way of boosting their local economies are seldom punished. Nor are officials who turn a blind eye to polluting industries, unless they cause big accidents or trigger unrest. Transgressions are so widespread that it would be destabilising to launch a crackdown. But just to make sure that career-damaging information does not reach Beijing, local governments often arrest petitioners who travel to the capital to raise complaints.

在经济发展问题上，因不听从中央政府指挥而被严惩的地方官员比较罕见。北京政府偶尔也会去打击盗版商人，有时一些不识趣的工厂会被勒令关闭。但是，那些姑息这类行业发展并将其作为当地经济增长点的地方官员却很少受到处分。同样地，，除非造成重大事故或引发社会骚乱，否则那些对高污染产业熟视无睹的官员也不会受到处分。违法乱纪活动猖獗，已经发展到非打击不可的地步了。但是，为了谨防有损于自己政治生涯的消息走漏到北京，地方官员们常常将那些企图到北京陈情上访的人关进监狱。

Central leaders are comforted by the knowledge that direct political challenges to their authority by local governments are extremely rare. Li Fan, an independent consultant in Beijing who advises local governments on election-related issues, says there is strong demand among lower-level officials for political reform. But very few rural townships have pushed experiments with freer elections or more open government beyond the party's guidelines. And none has tolerated organised opposition or open attacks on the party leadership. China's local leaders know where to draw the line.

让中央领导人聊以安慰的是，在实施行政权力时，几乎没有遇到来自各地方政府的正面阻挠。李凡（音译）是北京的一名独立顾问，他就选举相关事宜给地方政府出谋划策。他说基层干部对政治改革的呼声及其强烈。但是在乡村郊县，未经党的方针指示而推行选举更民主或政府更公开的试点工作少得可怜。而且这些工作的开展无法容忍有组织的反对活动，也不能接受对共产党领导的直接抨击。中国的地方官员知道必要的尺度和分寸。

注1：叶选平，叶剑英元帅的长子，１９８５年至１９９１年任中共广东省委副书记、省长。１９９１年４月至今担任全国政协副主席（文中提到的闲职）。

注2：张保庆，于2005年10月28日被免去教育部副部长职务。2005年11月，他在接受《中国青年报》（文中提及的官方报纸）采访时说“中国目前最大的问题是政令不通，中南海制定的东西有时都出不了中南海。”

注3：2006年5月17日，国务院发布的“关于促进房地产业健康发展的六点意见”，简称“国六条”  

Translated by edenbahamut

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Leaders 社论

Information technology 信息技术

Is Google the new Microsoft?

谷歌会成为下一个微软吗？

May 11th 2006

From The Economist print edition

In some ways, yes—but the differences matter more

就某些方面而言，是的——但是两者之间更多的是差异

    JUST AS human history has been shaped by the rise and fall of successive empires, so the computer industry has, in the few decades of its existence, been dominated by one large company after another. During the mainframe era, IBM wore the crown. But it fumbled the transition to smaller machines in the personal-computer era, and the throne was usurped by Microsoft. Now, at the dawn of the new era of internet services, Google is widely seen as the heir to the kingdom. As the upstart has matured into a powerful industry giant, the suggestion that “Google is the new Microsoft” has become commonplace in computing circles. Is it true?

    正如人类历史的进程是由一个个王朝的兴衰谱写而成的一样，计算机产业的发展也是如此。自计算机问世以来，数十年间，一些大型公司接二连三地称霸于这个产业。在大型计算机的时代，美国国际商用机器公司（IBM）问鼎一时。但是，在个人电脑向小型化发展的时代，IBM失掉了其霸主地位，取而代之的是微软。现在，历史揭开了网络服务新时代的篇章，世人们都把目光聚焦在Google，认为它将成为新的王位继承人。作为计算机世界的后起之秀，Google已经由成熟走向工业巨人，实力超群。在业内，对于“Google将成为下一个微软”的提议已经是耳熟能详的了。事实果真如此吗？

    The comparison is both a compliment and a reproach. It is a compliment because it implies that Google has now become the company that defines the environment in which other technology firms operate, just as IBM and Microsoft once did. As with Microsoft in its heyday, Google is the technology firm where the smartest geeks aspire to work; it embodies the technological zeitgeist; and it is a highly regarded company that has become a household name. But the comparison is also a reproach, because it highlights growing concern that Google is now too powerful for its own good, or that of the industry, or indeed that of the world at large.

    认为Google同微软存在这种可比之处，既是称赞，又是批评。说称赞是因为这种说法隐含着这样一层意思：如同曾经的IBM和微软，现在的Google公司可以对其他同类技术公司运营所处的环境进行界定。尽管微软正处于发展的颠峰时期，但与此同时，Google已是那些最杰出的极客们心驰神往的技术公司，那里处处洋溢着当前技术的时代精神，而且Google这个名字已经家喻户晓，备受瞩目。说批评是因为这种说法也突出了另外一个问题，人们逐渐担心：Google的过度壮大是对其自身有利，亦或是对整个计算机行业有利，还是真的对整个世界有利。

    For many people, Google provides the front door to the internet. For many online businesses, their position in its search ranking—the workings of which are a closely guarded secret—is a matter of life or death. Too much power is thus concentrated in Google's hands, say critics, including Microsoft's Bill Gates. Microsoft and other big internet firms, including eBay, Amazon and Yahoo!, are now said to be negotiating various alliances in order to provide a counterweight to the new behemoth. Smaller firms feel even more vulnerable. As soon as Google says it is moving into a particular market, small fry in that market now dart for cover, unless they are lucky enough to be acquired by Google.

    对许多人来说，Google提供了一扇通往因特网的大门。网页搜索得到的排序——其工作原理是被严格保密的——反映了各自坐次的高低，其结果往往决定了生死和胜负。包括微软的比尔盖茨在内的批评家们斥责Google掌握的权利过大了。据说，微软正在同其他一些网络公司，包括易趣、亚马逊和雅虎在内，就签订不同的协定进行谈判，以期对抗新兴的超级网络霸主。小一些的公司感到自己的处境更加艰难。只要Google宣布要涉足某个市场，在这个市场中那些本已岌岌可危的小公司只得望风而逃，随处躲藏，除非他们被Google收购而成为幸运儿。

    It is not just a matter of business. Google irreparably damaged its reputation with the more idealistic geeks in January when it set up a censored version of its search service for Chinese users. Caving in to the Chinese government, argued Google's critics, made a mockery of its corporate motto, “don't be evil”. Having started out as nothing more than a search engine, Google's ever-greater ambitions—augmented by a range of new initiatives unveiled at its annual media day this week—now make it seem both creepy and incoherently sprawling (see article). A similar fate befell Microsoft.

    但这不只是涉及纯粹的商业问题。在今年一月，Google给中国用户提供的搜索引擎中添加了审查制度，为此，越来越多持理想主义论调的极客们正在批评Google，名声的下滑已成定局。批评Google的人们说，屈服于中国政府的压力而妥协的行径，是一个对其公司的座右铭——“勿作恶”的讽刺。不断扩张的雄心——本周年度媒体发布会上发布了一些扩张的新举措的也膨胀着它的抱负，一方面激励这家纯粹靠搜索引擎起家的公司稳健发展，另一方面却促使其盲目地扩张。类似的命运也降临到微软的头上

Spot the difference

识别差异

    Yet there are some crucial ways in which Google differs from Microsoft. For a start, it is a far more innovative company, and its use of small, flexible teams has so far allowed it to remain innovative even as it has grown. Microsoft, in contrast, has stagnated as a result of its size and dominance. It is least innovative in the markets in which it faces the least competition—operating systems, office software and web browsers—though it is, curiously, still capable of innovating in markets in which it has strong rivals (notably video gaming).

    但是，Google在许多重大的方面是有别于微软的。就起点而言，Google是一家更加富有创意的公司，并且凭借使用小型、灵活的团队，依然保持着不断创新的势头，尽管公司已得到长足地发展。现比之下，微软已经为自己的规模和霸主地位所累。在最缺乏竞争的领域——操作系统、办公软件和网页浏览器等，微软在创新能力方面已经落后于其他任何竞争对手——尽管如此，它依然能够在那些对手强劲的市场中（尤其是电子游戏市场）不断创新，的确令人称奇。

    More important, however, are the differences that suggest that Google will not be able to establish an IBM- or Microsoft-style lock on the industry. IBM's dominance was based on its ownership of the proprietary hardware and software of its mainframe computers. In the PC era hardware became a commodity and Microsoft established a lucrative monopoly centred on its proprietary operating system, Windows. But in the new era of internet services, open standards predominate, rivals are always just a click away, and there is far less scope for companies to establish a proprietary lock-in.

    然而，更为重要的是这些差异可能意味着Google可能无法打磨成一把像IBM或微软那样的锁，能够将整合行业牢牢置于自己的手中。IBM的领导地位得自其对大型计算机硬件和软件的独家掌控。在个人电脑时代，电脑硬件成为了家用电器，微软占据了操作系统——视窗——开发的垄断地位。但是，在网络服务的新时代，开放型的标准占主导地位，竞争对手间的实力往往处于伯仲之间，更何况各家公司也几乎没有什么机会独占某一技术。

    Try to avoid using Microsoft's software for a day, particularly if you work in an office, and you will have difficulty; but surviving a day without Google is relatively easy. It has strong competitors in all the markets in which it operates: search, online advertising, mapping, software services, and so on. Large firms such as Yahoo!, which previously farmed searches out to Google, have switched to other technologies. Google's market share in search has fallen from a high of around 80% to around 50% today. Perhaps the clearest evidence that Google's continued dominance is not inevitable is the fate of AltaVista, the former top dog in internet search. Who remembers it today?

    一天不用微软公司的软件，尤其你的工作场所还是在办公室，那么你会发现不那么容易；但是一天不用Google，就比较容易办到。因为在Google运作的任何市场中——搜索、在线广告、绘图、软件服务等等——都不乏强有力的竞争对手。大型公司如雅虎，在早些时候将搜索服务转让给了Google，现在已经转向开发其他的技术。如今，Google在网络搜索中的市场份额由80％下滑到50％。可能，之前的AltaVista就是Google持续的领先地位并非是个不败神话的最具说服力的证明。AltaVista，作为一家早期网络搜索的领头羊，现在还有谁记得它的名字？

    Without a proprietary lock-in to protect its dominant position, Google will have to work hard to stay on top. And that, ultimately, is where the comparison with Microsoft breaks down. Google may be the nearest thing to the new Microsoft of the internet era, and the two companies clearly regard each other as their main rivals. But one of the best things about the internet age is that it may well not end up being dominated by a single, Microsoft-like giant at all.

    没有常葆霸主地位的独享技术，Google将不得不竭尽全力地巩固其领先地位。而且，这最终会成为无法同微软相比拟的一个因素。在现今的网络时代，Google可能是最有希望接替微软的公司，而且这两家公司都明确地将对方作为自己主要的竞争对手。但是，因特网时代最大的魅力之一在于，这一时代根本不会以如微软般规模的网络巨头独占鳌头的方式而终结。

注：Geek原指那些性格古怪的人，或是在狂欢节进行奇怪表演的小丑。现在衍生为一般人对电脑黑客的贬称，他们具有极高的技术能力，对计算机与网络的痴迷有时会达到不正常的状态。

Translated by edenbahamut

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